China built a 737 MAX replacement. No one wants it...

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Published 2024-04-19
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Chapters:
Intro - 0:00
The C919's Backlog - 1:43
This Doesn't Make Sense... - 3:00
Problem #1 - 3:39
Problem #2 - 6:39
A Future Competitor - 8:13
Outro - 8:51
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The aviation world is calling out for change. For decades, Boeing and Airbus have functioned as a duopoly, controlling about 90% of the commercial aircraft market. But recently, we’re seen just how problematic that setup can be.

Specifically, Boeing’s recent woes have thrown the industry into chaos. Its safety and quality control issues have hurt its ability to build new planes. And try as they might, Airbus can’t scale its operation quick enough to cover for them. This has forced many airlines to throw out their strategic plans - unable to get their hands on new planes to help them grow.

Now more than ever, the industry needs a third option - a new player that can pick up the slack. But the thing is…that third option kinda already exists. COMAC - China’s homegrown airplane maker - has made it their mission to break the Boeing / Airbus duopoly. But candidly, most people don't even know they exist. And you can’t really blame them - very few carriers have bought their jets, and sales for their flagship C919 have been few and far between.

Now on the surface, this doesn’t seem to make any sense. After all, the C919 is a brand-new, clean-sheet narrowbody that competes head on with the 737 MAX and A320NEO. It’s exactly the kind of plane that airlines need right now. And yet, no one seems to want it. So, what gives? Why isn’t anyone buying the C919? Let me explain…

#boeing #airbus #737max #a320 #c919 #comac

All Comments (21)
  • @davidchan4012
    I think COMAC built the C919 not to compete with either Boeing or Airbus because the duopoly is simply impossible to break at least in the next few decades. C919 is built for China to gain experience in building big commercial jets with the final goal of becoming less dependent on the US or the EU.
  • @lostcarpark
    There is an important reason you didn't mention why no one outside China is ordering the C919 - certification. As far as I know, it's only certified in China (and only since 2022). EASA have said certification in Europe will be after 2026 (but haven't said how much after). FAA have not said when US certification might happen - if at all. That's just too much uncertainty for airlines to place orders. At present it can only be flown by Chinese airlines, and only on internal Chinese routes. That's still a pretty huge market to go after. That's the other factor, Cormac don't need to go after international orders right now, and probably won't need to until the end of the decade, and by then the plane could look very different, and hopefully a lot more competitive.
  • A mere couple of years ago the same was said about Chinese cars. Now everyone is saying that they can't compete against China.
  • @rudiklein
    Bad quality can no longer be an issue, Boeing is probably below COMAC's level.
  • @d.b.cooper1
    It doesn’t need to compete. It’s simply to reduce reliance on the duopoly whilst building a new domestic industry
  • @TA-8787
    I just realised Leap 1-A for Airbus Leap 1-B for Boeing Leap 1-C for Comac
  • @kjin1013
    You missed the point completely. C919 is built to meet China's domestic needs, rather than for international market.
  • @freespeech8520
    Air China just ordered 100 C919s. Chinese market itself is able to make any industry thrive, like EV's.
  • @arthuralford
    There's a much larger reason for Comac's failure to get sales outside of China: politics. Comac is wholly owned by the Chinese government. Can you imagine if an airline like American or Delta put in an order for the C919? Politicians would go after those airlines for "supporting China" and not buying American or European. The US government already puts restrictions and tariffs on a wide variety of products from China; adding aircraft to that list and scoring political points isn't that difficult to believe. It doesn't matter how good or bad the C919 is, it's that it's made by a company owned by the Chinese government that makes it toxic
  • @julianchee2894
    Everybody said the same when Japanese cars first came out. Or even the A320. Give it a decade or two. Just look at their automotive, railway, and shipbuilding capabilities. Whatever your rebuttle is, the point is that China is catching up. It may be shitty now, but it’s catching up as history has shown.
  • Orders for the C919 have been scheduled for decades.What they need to solve now is the capacity problem.
  • @bensun5978
    COMAC had previously said that its C919 orders exceeded 1,000 and came mostly from Chinese airlines.
  • I've flown on the C919 and done extensive filmmaking with COMAC and from what I can tell they have zero interest in even trying to sell to US carriers at the moment. That's why they didn't try to certify it yet with the FAA either. Their aim is to learn and to ramp up production and take as large a share of the upcoming 8,000 narrowbodies Chinese airlines are expected to order in the next 15 years. That's also why the Leap 1C is good enough - you can cover a huge amount of routes in China with that. I expect South American and African carriers to order the C919 in a few years but am seeing this aircraft as akin to the A300, which also could not get orders in the US before AA finally did it. The goal at COMAC these last ten years has not to build the best airplane but to build an airplane. They wanted to get rolling. This reminds me of Chinese car makers, whose products sucked badly for many years and now all of a sudden with makers like BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Geely and others are making the Germans and Tesla sweat bullets in many countries. But the question is if COMAC going on a similar trajectory should bother us? I would argue that more nuance than what the "China = bad" crowd tends to yell is required: if we love aviation and want to see progress then competition is good. If they cause Airbus and Boeing to not rest on laurels so they won't be the next equivalent to a legacy car maker who lost their business (Hello, GM and Ford) in half of the countries they used to make fat profits in, then we as the customers and passengers win.
  • @hakanevin8545
    Welcome to another controversial video by Coby. Comac didn't apply to FAA or EASA or any other regulator (except Indonesia and Brunei) for certification. This means they don't want to sell C919 outside China and a few friendly countries for now. Current orders will make them busy for at least 5 years and during this time they will iron out teething problems. As a result, it is not fair to say no one wants it, because it is only for sale for limited countries. Having said so, it is neither cheaper than 737, nor better than A320 and Airbus is already working on A320neo++.
  • @peterpeng6336
    Exactly the same comment about made in China cars 10 years ago. Look today. Underestimate China at your own demise.
  • @pauljmeyer1
    China is new to this industry and needs to develop its own technology. Reliability is their first concern rather than overall efficiency for the moment.
  • They can't buy the C919 cause its not certified in Europe or America yet, Airbus didn't sell any A300s until Eastern Airlines was offered to test the type out for example. So its too early to write the program out as a complete failure.
  • @luispnrf
    "No one wants it..." Sure... 11 built, 5 operational, 738 ordered with 120 optional. For a brand new company (that aims to build 150 per year within 5 years) and first model that is not yet certified by EASA and FSA (that takes a lot of time!) those numbers are not bad. Name another starter company in any field that has 5 or 6 years prodution already sold.
  • @dabfan6924
    One of the big advantages of doing a video on the C-919, Coby, is it racks up lots of comments from Chinese bot farms. Feels good, huh?
  • @user-xu8ke4br1o
    I would love to see these bird fly in the states. The way I see it competition is a healthy way of improving technology and let's be honest you can't discard someone's achievement just like that.