What's Next After China's Surprise Interest Rate Cut

2024-07-21に共有
China has increased support for the economy with surprise interest rate cuts, seeking to prop up growth after a lack of short-term stimulus from a major Communist Party meeting disappointed investors. Tom Orlik of Bloomberg Economics discusses the impact of the move and what policymakers might do next.
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コメント (21)
  • @bijarjatoi
    It is such a tiny cut you can tell they wanted to see what the reaction would be.
  • @cd7707a
    Surprised is bad. No one can see what is happening so how can one plan.
  • @danxie-mg8yv
    Cuts 10 before the FR cuts 25 in Sep, the cuts 15 after Sep. It's called better management in China.
  • @grandiora
    Property in freefall? Yeah right. I just looked at Shanghai property prices, and at average Australian wages, it is still comprehensively unreachable.
  • I m sure underneath the headlines real gritty nitty steps of reform are being taken
  • @fatdoi003
    shock!! horror!!! 0.1% reduction..... chinese economy is crumbling down... quick print more RMB like what u.s doing now...
  • @yongchen8204
    cutting interest rate is always no good for the ordinary workers, anywhere in the world.
  • Just pointing out when the Japanese also cut rates after real estate and stock market crash
  • @twoheadlines
    Beijing will do what is fiscally needed following the best advice it has from China's own financial experts, not Western organisations who invariably do little other than demean anything that China does.
  • @bearpolo3618
    On Thursday, US Q2 GDP growth rate will be published. Let's see what it's like.
  • Such an economic recession in today's China could no longer be cured by relaxing the monetary squeeze which has hitherto precipitated it. Today's Chinese economy has lost its natural bounce. Positive stimulation becomes a prior condition for much faster and more solid economic recovery. Monetary ease no longer works (even though further interest rate cuts by the PBOC can help lower the refinancing costs for those maturing roll-over debts). - The problem is not a scarcity of credit but an excess of capacity (or, an overall lack of aggregate demand). Fiscal stimulation was required, meaning (mainly central rather than local) government dissaving through budget deficits to offset excess private savings. The policy of balancing the budget of the Chinese central government, which has ruled for many many years in China, should be abandoned. - The coming issuance of much more new central government (longer-term) treasuries in the primary market, if any, which helps solve China's current problem of acute lack of safety financial assets (and which helps steepen China's riskless yield curve), should be boldly pursued by today's Beijing authority. (Currently, of the US Fed's US$ 7.2 trillions of total assets, 61.6% are government treasuries. But there are only 3.5% of government treasuries in the 43 trillion yuans of total assets of China's PBOC.) - Simply speaking, the aggregate demand leakage coming from the country's excess (private) savings should be pumped back into the country's circular flow of income, in the form of aggregate demand injection, through the help of non-trivial (central) government deficit spending, so that the country's coming GDP growth rate won't further drop to a too-low level, the unemployment rate won't further go up, and no deflationary pressure will further consolidate. - It goes without saying that, to avoid Japan's past mistakes during the country's lost decades, the coming required fiscal stimulations in China should correctly be undertaken in the right ways. ---
  • @hitpat6179
    I know... its same old, same old...BUT I THINK, I think...JPMORGAN is going to violate the markets again (I know...surprising!!)