Mirror Matches in Ultimate (are not as even as you think)
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Published 2024-07-12
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#Ditto #MirrorMatch #SSBU #SmashUltimate #turndownforULT
All Comments (21)
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As a Puff main the Puff matchup is 60-40 in the opponent's favor
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I beat Ploopy in the Game & Watch ditto once. That told me all I needed to know about dittos.
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In short I think a large part of it is this: Humans have a tendency to assume that other humans think like them. So when playing a ditto that tendency backfires for the more experienced player. They may subconsciously expect the opponent to have the same habits as them, so the differences in playstyle catch them more off-guard. Meanwhile, the less experienced player's mindset is less solidified, so they aren't as restricted mentally as to what they expect.
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Don't forget in a cloud ditto, for cloud facing to the left side b hits farther away at the bottom and closer and the top while cloud facing right is inverse meaning a cloud on the right is the opposite meaning you could argue the cloud cloud matchup is in favour to the cloud that is facing right since it anti airs better.
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This is something I noticed when playing Guilty Gear Strive. Axl Low is the zoner supreme, he wants to hold people at great range because they typically can't fight as well at it as he does, and he's relatively weaker in close range. But if it's two Axls against each other the victor is usually the one who's playing, by their typical gameplan, the WORSE Axl; the one that's more willing and able to completely forego his zoning tools and just charge in with his close-ranged attacks.
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If you're the best character rep in town, it's much less likely that you've studied the gameplay of the 2-8 next best reps for your same character than that each of those seven players has studied your gameplan extensively, thus lending them a player knowledge advantage. Surely over the course of a few sets your results would normalize and the better player would start winning outright
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"The simple part is that they can do everything you can do. The complicated part is that they can do everything you can do."
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They also know every little thing about their character which isn’t an advantage but a disadvantage because they’ll predict things the other wouldn’t think of
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I think it could be because top players don’t train to play AGAINST their own character.
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It's funny, coming from an RTS background the idea of mirrors being a stable consistent test of player skill would never have occurred to me. Starcraft 2 mirrors generally have a reputation for being very gamble-y and chaotic, though at the same time some of the best players in the world have set themselves apart by dominating the mirror with insurmountable skill.
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9:15 Small correction, he didn't start the bracket in losers. Ultimate Summit 2 didn't do the whole "2 lowest RR places start in losers" thing, which only started with Ultimate Summit 3. Tweek's low RR placement just meant that he was seeded as the 2nd lowest from his pool and thus had to fight Leo (who was the 2nd highest player in his pool due to an Esam loss) in R1 of winners in the final bracket. He lost and then had to fight Leffen.
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I'm upset you brought up the statistics of how matches go in dittos and then didn't compare with the trend in ultimate overall. "The worse player wins 1/3rd of the time on average" is not an outrageous statement unless you can show that it's meaningfully more than it is in non dittos.
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My second tournament, I ended up in a ditto with one of the best players in my state- Despite my complete lack of experience, I won game 1. I genuinely think it has to do with risk-taking. The more-experienced player will use as few risks as possible, while the player with less experience is far less careful, and thus takes more chances for openings that the better player wouldn't take
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I feel like another reason you may have missed comes down to preparation. If you pick a character and want to improve with it the first thing you do is watch every match of the best player at that character. This inadvertently makes you really good against them since you know all their habits and their playstyle inside and out
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as a joker player the ditto is unwinnable. -4
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Walt learning Google Earth editing is something I've been waiting forever for.
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Falcon ditto is 70-30 for whoever is feeling themselves the most at any given moment
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"We play more than Fox" "... Yet the only Ditto we see is Fox." Is absolutely hilarious to me
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Holy shit my art is in a Turndownforwalt video (I made the PR Bassmage was on)
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Maybe a factor might be that the better player has too high expectations for the worse player (they might expect the other of being capable of what they themselves are, and therefore play it too safe in some interractions or not even try to match up check their oponent).
